Decompose-to-Experiment · ContractForge
Confounded success cannot identify the rule
ContractForge removes spatial navigation and makes the causal structure native to the episode. An agent selects one of two sigils, takes an independent ledger, performs ETCH and BIND in the required order, optionally audits, and commits. Authenticity is determined by a latent code–witness relation; “pick the NEAR sigil” is a deliberately perfect shortcut during adaptation.
ORWhich sigil?authentic +1 · forged −1
ANDSigil + ledger(−1, −1, −1, +1)
SEQWhich order?same actions · +1 vs −1
GUARDAudit first?benefit depends on shift risk
Passive experience leaves the shortcut unidentified
On all 500 aligned adaptation contracts, both “choose NEAR” and the code–witness rule win with a perfect efficiency score (RHAE 1.0). Passive four-policy search spends 672 actions, breaks the tie toward the simpler surface rule, and then scores 0% when the authentic sigil moves to FAR. TTRL-like self-imitation spends 1,280 actions on successful aligned traces and also remains at 0% held-out success.
Confounded support
Observe more
0%
held-out proxy-flip success after passive search or successful-trace imitation
vs
Matched intervention
Swap one surface field
100%
certificate yield at 10 actions per pair; causal edit advantage +2
The matched twin preserves the witness, sigil codes, authentic identity, finish, and operation order while swapping only NEAR/FAR. One pair is enough for exact symbolic prompt or graph memory to repair held-out behavior. A two-feature logistic proxy needs six minibatches—48 certificates and 480 actions—to cross from the shortcut to the causal feature and reach 100%.
| GUARD policy | Aligned RHAE | Proxy-flipped RHAE | Interpretation |
| No audit | 1.000 | 0.000 | fast when the shortcut holds |
| Audit + repair | 0.694 | 0.391 | worthwhile only above 0.4389 flip probability |
Replicated model-free mechanism test: N=500 at seed 0 and seed 777 produced the same summary. The executor and intervention request are scripted; the two-feature policy contains the causal feature by construction. This is not an LLM, PPO, TTRL, GRPO, or LoRA result.