Research snapshot · updated July 13, 2026

From solving the grid to knowing
when not to act.

GridRule began as a test of latent controls and compositional subgoals. The current work asks a harder question: can an agent gather the right evidence, avoid an irreversible but tempting commitment, and design an experiment that identifies which earlier decision actually changed the outcome?

Current snapshot

The research arc in four findings

  • Irreversibility is a causal difficulty, not just a harder map. On matched held-out layouts, base pass@8 falls from 1.000 when key use is reversible to 0.367 when a decoy can consume the needed color.
  • The strongest cure is data-centric. Safe, short demonstrations selected with a hard success filter lift irreversible pass@8 to 0.800 while preserving reversible performance at 0.984.
  • Milestone achievement is not reliable credit. In FrontierGrid probes, harmful proof and contaminant milestones are reached 100% of the time and receive positive hindsight credit, even though matched alternatives show negative advantage.
  • Evidence should drive an identifying experiment. FrontierGrid tests evidence-before-action; ContractForge then asks for a matched intervention that separates a causal rule from a perfectly correlated shortcut.
Held-out · 2 seeds Scripted · N=500 Diagnostic · single trace Design / not yet learned
Environment lineages

Three environments, one narrowing question

All three are deterministic, procedural, and text-native. GridRule and FrontierGrid are spatial BFS environments; ContractForge is a compact exact-action contract laboratory. Each targets a different failure boundary.

Main branch Implemented + trained

GridRule

Can a small model discover latent rules, compose subgoals, and avoid an unrecoverable trap?

  • Per-episode action, role, and binding permutations
  • Doors, switches, push blocks, AND-gates, crafting, hazards, fog, and drift
  • Decoy door that consumes a color and silently makes the exit unreachable
  • CTTD, selected-demonstration SFT, critics, and online self-reward probes
Hard-environment branch Implemented + probing

FrontierGrid

Can an agent delay commitment until it has combined all decision-relevant evidence?

  • Compact 7×15 layout with five possible action bindings
  • Direct, relational, and claim-versus-counterexample evidence
  • Safe and bad portals, wrong-proof shortcut, permanent contaminants
  • Final gate accepts exactly {alpha_key, proof_b}
Hard-environment branch Implemented + probed

ContractForge

Can a decomposition propose the cheapest legal experiment that distinguishes a causal rule from a shortcut?

  • Native OR choice, AND prerequisites, SEQ order, and optional GUARD
  • Authenticity follows a latent code–witness relation
  • Matched surface twin swaps only the tempting NEAR/FAR proxy
  • All structural comparisons reached through legal actions from reset
Separate interactive document

See the design as a state machine, not a feature list.

Toggle evidence regimes, commit to items and portals, inspect the hidden research labels, and fork the same decision boundary.

Open environment explorer ↗
Main branch · corrected held-out results

Irreversibility flips the bottleneck

GridRule's decoy shares a real door color. Under the irreversible rule, opening it spends the color required later; under the reversible control, the same map remains recoverable. The ON/OFF comparison changes that rule while holding the layouts fixed.

Base · irreversible ON
0.367
held-out pass@8
Base · reversible OFF
1.000
held-out pass@8

Pass@8 means at least one success in eight sampled rollouts; it is not first-attempt accuracy.

Policy / conditionIrreversible ONReversible OFFEvidence
Base0.3671.000held-out
Safe trap demos only0.7340.9002 train seeds
Safe trap + reversible demos0.8000.9842 train × 2 eval seeds

What worked: constrain collection to safe trajectories, keep successful trajectories with a hard filter, select short demonstrations, clone the corrected actions, and mix in reversible examples to preserve navigation.

Audit correction

A July audit found deterministic train/evaluation seed overlap in an earlier cure family. The values above use disjoint evaluation seeds and replace the older absolute cure numbers. The matched causal ON/OFF effect survived.

The original transfer result still matters—within scope

In reversible tasks, coordinate subgoals trained on single-gate primitives transferred to unseen compositions. Across five small pilot arms, every subgoal arm exceeded the plain baseline on unseen stages; mean pass@1 was 0.440–0.465 versus 0.264. That supports transferable decomposition, but not the broader claim that execution is always the bottleneck.

Mechanic-specific diagnosis

Reversible depth mainly exposes execution. Hazards expose routing. Crafting exposes order. Irreversibility exposes lookahead before commitment. The environment's useful output is not only success—it is which faculty broke.

Learning and evaluation

Decision boundaries beat aggregate scores

Held-out transitions

A critic can be 97.5% accurate and miss the decision.

The original critic caught only 11 of 106 actual decoy-commit boundaries: 0.104 recall. Hard-negative mining raised boundary recall to 1.000 while overall accuracy stayed 0.971.

Boundary recall0.104 → 1.000
Online RL · 2 seeds

Sparse self-reward matches outcome reward, with more variance.

Environment-verified typed subgoal reward reached mean final win 0.500 versus 0.525 for outcome reward. Dense distance reward accumulated about 13× faster while wins stayed nearly flat.

Final win0.500 vs 0.525
Controlled probe

Observability mattered more than volatility.

When controls were shown, stationary and fast-drift conditions both remained high (0.933 and 0.967). When controls were hidden, both collapsed to zero in the tested probe.

Shown / hidden≈0.95 / 0.00

Current interpretation: self-reward is competence-gated. It can stabilize a policy that already proposes meaningful, verifiable subgoals; it did not reliably create that competence from a weak policy or exceed the seed model's ceiling.

Hard-environment branch · FrontierGrid

Harder by changing the decision, not enlarging the map

FrontierGrid fixes navigation in a compact 7×15 world and makes the evidence structure harder. A claim can make a nearby proof look useful; only a separate counterexample reveals that the shortcut cannot return. Picking the proof or a contaminant is permanent, and the final gate requires an exact clean inventory.

Evidence-aware policy 100% N=500 scripted instances
Collect-nearest 0% perfect target navigation
Clue then nearest 0% still collects a banned item

This local probe varies mirrored geometry and controls. It establishes the intended causal trap, not broad model capability.

A diagnostic model trace separates proof choice from efficiency

ConditionEvidence usedCommitmentOutcome
False-proof routetempting claim onlyinvalid proof + bad portalfailed in 12 actions
Route + checklistclaim + counterexamplevalid required items0.80 progress at action cap

Diagnostic, not a benchmark score: these are single-model, single-seed traces. The checklist corrected proof selection but did not solve within 20 actions. That isolates a remaining execution-efficiency failure.

A budget-20 test-time-evolution runner also repaired one unsafe candidate and won in 20 final actions after 44 total actions. The base trace already won in 18, so this validates the runner—not superiority of the method.

Decompose-to-Experiment · ContractForge

Confounded success cannot identify the rule

ContractForge removes spatial navigation and makes the causal structure native to the episode. An agent selects one of two sigils, takes an independent ledger, performs ETCH and BIND in the required order, optionally audits, and commits. Authenticity is determined by a latent code–witness relation; “pick the NEAR sigil” is a deliberately perfect shortcut during adaptation.

ORWhich sigil?authentic +1 · forged −1
ANDSigil + ledger(−1, −1, −1, +1)
SEQWhich order?same actions · +1 vs −1
GUARDAudit first?benefit depends on shift risk

Passive experience leaves the shortcut unidentified

On all 500 aligned adaptation contracts, both “choose NEAR” and the code–witness rule win with a perfect efficiency score (RHAE 1.0). Passive four-policy search spends 672 actions, breaks the tie toward the simpler surface rule, and then scores 0% when the authentic sigil moves to FAR. TTRL-like self-imitation spends 1,280 actions on successful aligned traces and also remains at 0% held-out success.

Confounded support

Observe more

0%

held-out proxy-flip success after passive search or successful-trace imitation

Matched intervention

Swap one surface field

100%

certificate yield at 10 actions per pair; causal edit advantage +2

The matched twin preserves the witness, sigil codes, authentic identity, finish, and operation order while swapping only NEAR/FAR. One pair is enough for exact symbolic prompt or graph memory to repair held-out behavior. A two-feature logistic proxy needs six minibatches—48 certificates and 480 actions—to cross from the shortcut to the causal feature and reach 100%.

GUARD policyAligned RHAEProxy-flipped RHAEInterpretation
No audit1.0000.000fast when the shortcut holds
Audit + repair0.6940.391worthwhile only above 0.4389 flip probability

Replicated model-free mechanism test: N=500 at seed 0 and seed 777 produced the same summary. The executor and intervention request are scripted; the two-feature policy contains the causal feature by construction. This is not an LLM, PPO, TTRL, GRPO, or LoRA result.

Structural credit · model-free probes

Credit the intervention, not the milestone

The original FrontierGrid Credit-DAG probe represents a decomposition as typed relations: alternatives (OR), jointly necessary prerequisites (AND), order (SEQ), guards, options, and switches. It forks matched continuations from the same boundary and asks which edit changed downstream return. ContractForge now realizes OR, all four AND coalitions, SEQ, and GUARD through legal episode actions.

1Typed graph
2Matched boundary fork
3Visible outcome
4Certified pair or abstain
ProbeNaive local signalMatched causal result
Wrong proof / contaminantachieved 100%; positive hindsightOR advantage −0.667 each
Claim / counterexampleboth progress +0.15OR advantages −1 vs +2; gap 3.0
Exact-gate prerequisiteseach alone has utility 0joint interaction 1; Shapley 0.5 each

Short rollouts are missing information—not zero reward

A second N=500 horizon sweep, independently repeated with another seed configuration, asked how long a continuation must run before its ordering is trustworthy. Hindsight never recovered the correct poisoned-milestone ranking. Strict outcome intervals reached full certification only at horizon 18 for evidence choices and 22 for milestones.

Evidence pair certificates
25–30%
fewer actions than ranking the full sibling group
Milestone pair certificates
46–54%
fewer actions than ranking the full sibling group
Provisional scoreallocate search budget
Certified paireligible for a learning update
Unresolvedabstain

Scope: the FrontierGrid probes use deterministic scripted continuations with privileged item identities. ContractForge adds a two-feature pairwise update, but no LLM generates the graph, intervention, or policy behavior, and no language-model weights are updated.

Evidence ledger

What is established, diagnostic, and still designed

Held-out · small n

GridRule causal toggle and safe-demo cure

Two training seeds and two disjoint evaluation seeds for the final pass@8 table. Strong within this environment; not yet a broad statistical claim.

Replicated · 2 seeds

Sparse self-reward parity

Competitive with outcome reward, slower and more variable. Dense and blended variants did not improve the conclusion.

Single trace

FrontierGrid model behavior and TTE repair

Useful failure anatomy, not a model ranking. Broader models, seeds, stages, and budgets remain to be run.

Scripted · N=500

FrontierGrid Credit-DAG and budget probes

Mirrored procedural instances with a privileged scripted executor. The original exact-gate AND result is a controlled synthetic boundary microprobe.

N=500 × 2

ContractForge structural and active-credit probes

Legal-action OR, AND, SEQ, and GUARD comparisons plus a matched surface swap. The executor, intervention, symbolic memory, and two-feature learner are privileged mechanism tests.

Not implemented

LLM-facing Credit-DAG learning

An LLM-proposed graph and field-preserving intervention, learned pair scheduler, stochastic executor, token-span credit, and LoRA update are next tests—not current results.

Artifact scope

Research snapshot, not a packaged release

The branches commit environment code, probes, and synthesized reports. A complete portable bundle of the main branch’s raw run artifacts is not yet published.

The broad lesson is narrower than “more reward fixes reasoning.” In these environments, the useful signal often lives at a specific commitment boundary. Data collection, evaluation, and credit assignment all improve when they preserve that boundary instead of averaging it away.